Scientists say the threat of a large space rock striking the Earth in 2032 has increased.
科学家表示，2032年一块大型太空岩石撞击地球的威胁已经增加。
Recent calculations suggest there is a small chance, perhaps around 1-3%, the space rock 2024 YR4 will hit Earth in 2032.
最近的计算表明，2024年YR4号太空岩石在2032年撞击地球的可能性很小，可能在1-3%左右。
This also means there is around a 97-99% chance it will safely pass our planet in that year.
这也意味着它有大约97-99%的机会在那一年安全通过我们的星球。
The odds of a strike will likely continue to go up and down as the asteroid's path around the Sun is better understood.
随着小行星围绕太阳的轨道被更好地理解，撞击的几率可能会继续上升和下降。
And scientists say there is a good chance the risk will drop to zero.
科学家表示，风险很有可能降至零。
NASA and the European Space Agency's Webb Space Telescope will observe this near-Earth asteroid in March before the object becomes impossible to see.
美国航天局和欧洲航天局的韦伯太空望远镜将在三月份观察这颗近地小行星，以免物体变得无法看到。
Once that happens, scientists will have to wait until 2028 when it passes our way again.
一旦发生这种情况，科学家们将不得不等到2028年它再次与我们擦肩而过。
Asteroids are space rocks orbiting the Sun.
小行星是围绕太阳运行的太空岩石。
Asteroids are much smaller than planets.
小行星比行星小得多。
Scientists believe they are the leftovers from the solar system's formation 4.6 billion years ago.
科学家认为它们是46亿年前太阳系形成的残留物。
There are millions of asteroids orbiting the Sun between Mars and Jupiter.
火星和木星之间有数百万颗围绕太阳运行的小行星。
That area is known as the main asteroid belt.
该区域被称为主要小行星带。
The asteroids sometimes get pushed out of the belt and can end up elsewhere.
小行星有时会被推出带外，并可能最终到达其他地方。
A telescope in Chile discovered the asteroid 2024 YR4 in late December.
智利的一架望远镜在12月下旬发现了小行星2024 YR4。
It is estimated to measure between 40 and 90 meters across.
据估计，它的直径在40到90米之间。
NASA said observations by the Webb Space Telescope should provide a more exact measurement.
美国航天局表示，韦伯太空望远镜的观测应该提供更精确的测量。
At first, NASA and the European Space Agency put the odds of a strike at just over 1%.
起初，美国航天局和欧洲航天局认为袭击的几率略高于1%。
But later calculations suggested the odds had risen to 2% or even 3%.
但是后来的计算表明几率已经上升到2%甚至3%。
NASA described the likelihood of a strike as extremely low.
美国航天局称袭击的可能性极低。
Until scientists have a better understanding of the asteroid's path around the Sun,
在科学家更好地了解小行星围绕太阳的路径之前，
they warned that the odds will continue to change and quite possibly fall to zero.
他们警告说，赔率将继续变化，很可能降至零。
You don't have to be worried about anything.
你什么都不用担心。
It's a curiosity, said Larry Deneau.
这是一种好奇心，拉里·德诺说。
He is a software engineer at the University of Hawaii working with ATLAS,
他是夏威夷大学的一名软件工程师，与ATLAS合作，
a program to identify asteroids that might endanger Earth.
一个识别可能危及地球的小行星的程序。
That effort first spotted the asteroid.
这一努力首先发现了小行星。
Deneau said, Don't panic. Let the process play out, and we'll have a for-sure answer.
德诺说，不要惊慌。让这个过程继续下去，我们会有一个肯定的答案。
In 2021, NASA said another possibly worrisome asteroid, Apophis, did not present a risk to Earth.
2021年，美国航天局表示，另一颗可能令人担忧的小行星阿波菲斯没有对地球构成威胁。
NASA made the announcement after additional telescope observations ruled out any chance of it hitting Earth in 2068.
美国航天局在额外的望远镜观测排除了它在2068年撞击地球的可能性后宣布了这一消息。
Experts say it is too soon to worry about 2024 YR-4.
专家表示，现在担心2024年的YR-4还为时过早。
Paul Chodas is director of NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies.
保罗·乔达斯是美国航天局近地天体研究中心主任。
Chodas said in an email to the Associated Press,
乔达斯在给美联社的电子邮件中说，
No one should be concerned that the impact probability is rising.
没有人应该担心撞击概率正在上升。
This is the behavior our team expected.
这是我们团队预期的行为。
Chodas added, To be clear, we expect the impact probability to drop to zero at some point.
乔达斯补充说：明确地说，我们预计撞击概率在某个时候会降至零。
Since the asteroid's size and orbit are uncertain,
由于小行星的大小和轨道不确定，
It is unclear where it might hit, And what the possible effects would be should it strike Earth.
目前还不清楚它可能击中哪里，如果它击中地球可能会产生什么影响。
Asa said, If the asteroid is smaller, The effect might be similar to the Tunguska event
阿萨说，如果小行星更小，其影响可能类似于通古斯事件
That flattened thousands of square kilometers of forest in Siberia in 1908.
1908年，西伯利亚数千平方公里的森林被夷为平地。
But if the asteroid is larger, Close to 100 meters, The effects would be significantly worse.
但是如果小行星更大，接近100米，影响会明显更糟。
Chodas said once the Webb telescope measures the asteroid's size,
乔达斯说，一旦韦伯望远镜测量到小行星的大小，
NASA can predict how serious an impact this asteroid could produce,
美国航天局可以预测这颗小行星会产生多么严重的影响，
And how difficult a task it might be to deflect this asteroid.
以及让这颗小行星偏转是一项多么困难的任务。
NASA already has some experience moving an asteroid.
美国航天局已经有一些移动小行星的经验。
The space agency's DART spacecraft hit a harmless asteroid in 2022.
航天局的灾难援助反应队飞船在2022年撞上了一颗无害的小行星。
This was the first planetary defense test of its kind,
这是第一次此类行星防御测试，
Changing the asteroid's orbit around its larger companion asteroid.
改变小行星围绕其较大伴侣小行星的轨道。
I'm John Russell.
我是约翰·罗素。